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. 2007 Jan;13(1):12-7.
doi: 10.3201/eid1301.060649.

Vaccine effectiveness estimates, 2004-2005 mumps outbreak, England

Cheryl Cohen  1 , Joanne M White, Emma J Savage, Judith R Glynn, Yoon Choi, Nick Andrews, David Brown, Mary E Ramsay
Affiliations

Vaccine effectiveness estimates, 2004-2005 mumps outbreak, England

Cheryl Cohen et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Jan.

Abstract

The United Kingdom and United States have recently experienced large outbreaks of mumps, which raises concerns about vaccine effectiveness. The effectiveness of the mumps component of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine was estimated using the screening method. In England from January 2004 through March 2005, 312 cases of mumps were reported in children eligible to have received 2 doses of MMR vaccine. Of these children, 52 (16.7%) had received 1 dose of MMR vaccine, and 97 (31.1%) had received 2 doses. Vaccine effectiveness was 88% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83%-91%) for 1 dose and 95% (95% CI 93%-96%) for 2 doses. The effectiveness of 1 dose declined from 96% (95% CI 81%-99%) in 2-year-olds to 66% (95% CI 30%-83%) in 11- to 12-year-olds, and the effectiveness of 2 doses declined from 99% (95% CI 97%-99.5%) in 5- to 6-year-olds to 86% (95% CI 74%-93%) in 11- to 12-year-olds (p<0.001 for 1 or 2 doses). Waning immunity may contribute to mumps outbreaks in older vaccinated populations.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimates of the proportion of the population susceptible to mumps by age in 2005, applying study estimates of vaccine effectiveness to population coverage data.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimates of 1-dose vaccine effectiveness for cases in 2004–05, assuming an increase in coverage of 0.04%–0.4% per year of age, which represents vaccination of approximately 1%–10% of unvaccinated persons per year of age. Values are offset on the x-axis so that 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are visible.
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