[Epidemiology of HIV infections in Germany]

Abstract

The course of the HIV epidemic in Germany can be modelled by back calculation until the beginning of the nineties. The recent course of the epidemic can only be derived from surveillance data of newly diagnosed HIV infections in conjunction with other data sources. Based on these surveillance data HIV incidence in Germany can be estimated to have been stable with 2000 to 2500 new infections per year since the early nineties, after having peaked in the early eighties. The most affected group are men who have sex with men followed by persons infected by heterosexual contact and migrants from high prevalence countries. The number of intravenous drug users has declined over the years and is now in fourth place. There are indications that increased risk behaviour and rising numbers of other sexually transmitted infections together with a change towards later initiation of antiretroviral therapy has led to an increase in new HIV infections in Germany in recent years. An improvement of the epidemiological surveillance for "indicator" STIs in combination with the assessment of risk behaviours in high risk groups would be desirable steps towards a second generation surveillance in Germany.