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. 2007 Jul 7;274(1618):1651-8.
doi: 10.1098/rspb.2007.0464.

Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves

Daniel P Bebber  1 , Francis H C Marriott, Kevin J Gaston, Stephen A Harris, Robert W Scotland
Affiliations

Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves

Daniel P Bebber et al. Proc Biol Sci. .

Abstract

A common approach to estimating the total number of extant species in a taxonomic group is to extrapolate from the temporal pattern of known species descriptions. A formal statistical approach to this problem is provided. The approach is applied to a number of global datasets for birds, ants, mosses, lycophytes, monilophytes (ferns and horsetails), gymnosperms and also to New World grasses and UK flowering plants. Overall, our results suggest that unless the inventory of a group is nearly complete, estimating the total number of species is associated with very large margins of error. The strong influence of unpredictable variations in the discovery process on species accumulation curves makes these data unreliable in estimating total species numbers.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cumulative species count against year for (a) New World grasses, (b) gymnosperms, (c) ants (by decade), (d) mosses, (e) ferns, (f) lycopods, (g) British flora and (h) birds of the world.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Species discovered per year (St) against cumulative species count to previous year (Nt−1) for (a) New World grasses, (b) gymnosperms, (c) ants (by decade), (d) mosses, (e) ferns, (f) lycopods, (g) British flora (omitting 1753 data) and (h) birds of the world.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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