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. 2007 May 7;96(9):1484-8.
doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746. Epub 2007 May 1.

The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

H Møller  1 , L Fairley, V Coupland, C Okello, M Green, D Forman, B Møller, F Bray
Affiliations

The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

H Møller et al. Br J Cancer. .

Abstract

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in age-standardised (European standard population) incidence rates of all cancers combined (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) up to 2020. Rates in males in blue; rates in females in red.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Trends in age-standardised (European standard population) incidence rates of different cancers and predictions up to 2020. Rates in males in blue; rates in females in red.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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