Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2007 Aug;61(8):704-12.
doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.048074.

Age and follow-up time affect the prognostic value of the ECG and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for stroke in adult men

Christina Ström Möller  1 , Jonas Häggström, Björn Zethelius, Bernice Wiberg, Johan Sundström, Lars Lind
Affiliations

Age and follow-up time affect the prognostic value of the ECG and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for stroke in adult men

Christina Ström Möller et al. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2007 Aug.

Abstract

Objectives: To explore whether the predictive power of mid-life ECG abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future stroke change over a 30-year follow-up period, and whether a repeated examination improves their predictive power.

Design and setting: Longitudinal population-based study.

Participants: 2,322 men aged 50 years, with a follow-up period of 30 years. 1,221 subjects were re-examined at age 70 years

Main outcome measure: Risk for fatal and non-fatal stroke during three decades of follow-up. Investigations included resting ECG and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Results: When measured at age 50 years, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, together with ECG-left ventricular hypertrophy, were of importance only during the first 20 years, but regained importance when re-measured at age 70 years. Blood pressure was a significant predictor for stroke over all three decades of follow-up. In elderly people only, there is evidence that apolipoprotein A1 may protect from future stroke.

Conclusion: Mid-life values for blood pressure and ECG abnormalities retain their predictive value over long follow-up periods even though they improved in predictive power when re-measured in elderly people. Despite lower prevalence, ECG abnormalities had greater impact at age 50 years than at age 70 years. By contrast, apolipoprotein A1 was protective for future stroke only at age 70 years.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: BZ, BW and JS have nothing to declare. During the time the study was conducted, CSM, JH and LL were also employed by AstraZeneca, Research and Development, Sweden but AstraZeneca has not had any role in the study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. Sarti C, Rastenyte D, Cepaitis Z.et al International trends in mortality from stroke, 1968 to 1994. Stroke 2000311588–1601. - PubMed
    1. Sudlow C L, Warlow C P. Comparable studies of the incidence of stroke and its pathological types: results from an international collaboration. International Stroke Incidence Collaboration. Stroke 199728491–499. - PubMed
    1. Guillot F. Atherothrombosis as a marker for disseminated atherosclerosis and a predictor of further ischaemic events. A review. Eur Heart J 19991A14–A26.
    1. Lithell H. Pathogenesis and prevalence of atherosclerosis in hypertensive patients. Am J Hypertens 199472S–6S. - PubMed
    1. Arboix A, Miguel M, Ciscar E.et al Cardiovascular risk factors in patients aged 85 or older with ischaemic stroke. Clin Neurol Neurosurg 20051717 - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms