[Study on the secular trend of road traffic injuries and its influencing factors in China]

Abstract

Objective: To analyze and summarize the secular trend and influencing factors of road traffic injuries(RTI) in China, so as to provide evidence for the management of traffic safety.

Methods: Indexes as fatalities per 10,000 vehicles, fatalities per 100,000 population, fatalities per 10,000 kilometers, motorization(number of vehicles per 1000 population) and mortal coefficient were used. Clustering analysis and ranking correlation were used to analyze the relative factors.

Results: The number of casualties of RTI had doubled every decade before the year of 2000. One hundred thousand people were killed in RTI every year since 2000. Facts as: Gross National Product(GNP) of China exceeded 1000 USD in 2002, number of motor vehicles reached 1.3 million in 2005, had both influenced the rates of road traffic fatality, mileage fatality and mortal coefficient which causing them to drop since 2002. In China, RTI happened in the underdeveloped districts in the western part of the country including Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and in some coastal areas as Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. Men seemed to be more at risk than women in RTI, and accounted for three-quarters of the victims. Majority of fatalities happened in 21-50 year olds and the fatalities among those over 65 year olds had risen every year. The vulnerable populations in road-user category were pedestrians, passengers, motorcyclists and bicyclists. Under most situations, drivers were responsible for RTI and over half of them were professionals. Bad behaviors were the major causes of RTI, including exceeding the speed limit, handle misfeasance, breaking traffic rules and regulation, having taken alcohol or driving with fatigue etc. Exceeding the speed limit was the most risky factor which causing 75% of the RTI and the traffic deaths increased between 2002 to 2004. A positive correlation was discovered between population fatality rate and the factors as the number of vehicles, volume of road haulage, volume of passengers and the degree of highway etc. with correlation coefficients as r1 = 0.986, r2 = 0.986, r3 = 0.987, r4 = 0.985, P = 0.001, respectively.

Conclusion: Since 1951, the population fatality rate of RTI had been going up continuously until it began to fall in 2003.