Drivers of change in global agriculture

Abstract

As a result of agricultural intensification, more food is produced today than needed to feed the entire world population and at prices that have never been so low. Yet despite this success and the impact of globalization and increasing world trade in agriculture, there remain large, persistent and, in some cases, worsening spatial differences in the ability of societies to both feed themselves and protect the long-term productive capacity of their natural resources. This paper explores these differences and develops a countryxfarming systems typology for exploring the linkages between human needs, agriculture and the environment, and for assessing options for addressing future food security, land use and ecosystem service challenges facing different societies around the world.

Figure 1

Global trends in food production and prices (index 1961–2005). Data from FAOSTAT (2006), IMF Yearbooks and World Bank (2005).

Figure 2

Global trends in the intensification of crop production (index 1961–2002/2005). Adapted from Cassman & Wood (2005), updated from FAOSTAT (; tractor and fertilizer data to 2002, land use to 2003, production to 2005).

Figure 3

Index of total agricultural output per capita by region (index 1961–2005). Adapted from FAOSTAT (2006).

Figure 4

Global trends in cereal yield by region (1961–2005). Adapted from FAOSTAT (2006).