Development of risk scoring scheme for prediction of cesarean delivery due to cephalopelvic disproportion in Lamphun Hospital, Thailand

Abstract

Aim: To develop a simple risk scoring scheme for the prediction of cesarean delivery due to cephalopelvic disproportion (CPD) in Lamphun Hospital, Thailand.

Methods: A case-control study was conducted including 116 pregnant women with cesarean delivery due to CPD and 307 pregnant women delivering by normal labor. Obstetric information was retrieved from medical records. Risk indicators measurable at the time of admission were analyzed by a stepwise logistic regression to obtain a set of statistically significant predictors. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores and added up to a total score. Risk of cesarean delivery due to CPD was analyzed using total scores as the only predictor.

Results: A risk scoring scheme was developed from five obstetric predictors: maternal age, height, parity, pregnancy weight gain and symphysis-fundal height. Item scores ranged from 0 up to 3.5 and the total score from 0-14.5. The scheme explained, by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 88% of cesarean delivery due to CPD. The likelihood of cesarean delivery due to CPD in pregnant women with low risk (scores below 5), moderate risk (scores 5-9.5) and high risk (scores 10 and over) were 0.09, 0.86 and 10.11, respectively.

Conclusions: The risk of cesarean delivery due to CPD may be forecasted by a simple scoring scheme using five predictors that correctly identified women with low, moderate and high risk. This scheme may be applicable to physicians and midwives for identifying high-risk pregnant women in order to take appropriate action.