Prevention and control of emerging infections: a challenge for the 3rd millennium

Abstract

In the last 30 years, several emerging infections due to novel viruses have been identified, from haemorrhagic fever viruses to HIV, from the SARS-Coronavirus to Avian influenza viruses. Ecological and genetic changes are important determinants of the emergence of new viral infections, driving to an increase of R0 (the basic reproductive number) through increasing the probability of transmission. The current H5N1 epidemic may be considered a prepandemic paradigm that needs thorough investigation.