A simplified Finnish diabetes risk score to predict type 2 diabetes risk and disease evolution in a German population

Abstract

Aims: The FINDRISC questionnaire is a screening tool to estimate the risks for type 2 diabetes as well as asymptomatic type 2 diabetes. We aimed to evaluate its performance to predict diabetes in a German population and to compare its predictive and detective ability in the same population.

Methods: A total of 552 subjects with increased risk of type 2 diabetes were investigated. All individuals completed the FINDRISC questionnaires and underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). All individuals were followed for 3 years and underwent an OGTT again. The performance of the opportunistic screening was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). An intervention program was carried out for all diabetic and IFG/IGT patients at baseline.

Results: For identification, the asymptomatic type 2 DM was named Condition 1; prediction of type 2 DM risk in the follow-up survey as Condition 2; and diabetes risk predicting in a hypothetical case of survey without intervention program as Condition 3. The ROC-AUC in the three condition were AUC (FINDRISC1)=0.745, AUC (FINDRISC2)=0.789, and AUC (FINDRISC3)=0.775, respectively. A significant association between FINDRISC and evolution of disease was found, but the variation of plasma glucose during the three years follow-up was not associated with FINDRISC. People in the intervention group with an improvement of glucose tolerance had a smaller FINDRISC score than persons with an unchanged or progressive condition of disease.

Conclusion: FINDRISC was validated in our study as a simple tool with high performance to predict diabetes risk and less efficient to identify asymptomatic type 2 diabetes. People with lower FINDRISC score will benefit easier from preventive intervention.