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. 2008 Aug;136(8):1088-95.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268807009466. Epub 2007 Sep 25.

Declining incidence of meningococcal disease in Denmark, confirmed by a capture-recapture analysis for 1994 and 2002

M F Howitz  1 , S Samuelsson, K Mølbak
Affiliations

Declining incidence of meningococcal disease in Denmark, confirmed by a capture-recapture analysis for 1994 and 2002

M F Howitz et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Aug.

Abstract

Denmark has in the past 10 years experienced a decrease in the number of notified cases of meningococcal disease. In 1994 the completeness of the Notification System for Meningococcal Disease (NSMD) was estimated as 96% (95% CI 93-98). To answer the question whether the observed decrease reflects a real decrease in the incidence; we estimated the completeness of the notification system in 2002. We estimated the completeness of registration by a capture-recapture analysis. As the first data source, we used the national NSMD, which is an integrated surveillance system between the Department of Epidemiology and the Neisseria Reference Laboratory. The second independent source was the National Patient Registry (NPR). In 2002, the completeness of the NSMD was estimated as 96% (95% CI 95-98) and for the NPR as 84% (95% CI 82-85). The 'real' incidence rate was 1.9/100 000 population, which compared to 4.4/100 000 population in 1994. We concluded that the observed decrease in incidence rate is real. The NSMD in Denmark functions well and captures almost all cases of meningococcal disease. The complete registration which includes a unique personal identification number serves as an outstanding source for nationwide registry linkage studies.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The incidence of meningococcal disease (MD) and the serogroup-specific incidence from the notification system for meningococcal disease (NSMD), 1980–2006, and the incidence of registered cases in the National Patient Registry (NPR) with ICD-10 code A39, 1995–2002 (–•–). (The MD incidence rate from the NPR is based on notified cases and has not been scrutinized to verify the diagnoses, as was done for years 1994 and 2002.)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Flow diagram of notified cases to the Notification System for Meningococcal Disease (NSMD) and the National Patient Registry (NPR), 2002. MD, Meningococcal disease.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Notification System for Meningococcal Disease: age-specific incidence rate of serogroup B meningococcal disease in Denmark, 1994–2006.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Notification System for Meningococcal Disease: age-specific incidence rate of serogroup C meningococcal disease in Denmark, 1994–2006.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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