Uterine artery Doppler at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks in the prediction of pre-eclampsia

Abstract

Objective: To determine the performance of screening for pre-eclampsia (PET) by maternal characteristics and uterine artery pulsatility index (PI) at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation.

Methods: In women with singleton pregnancies attending for routine care at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation we recorded maternal variables and measured the uterine artery PI. We identified 107 cases that subsequently developed PET and 5041 that were unaffected by PET, gestational hypertension or delivery of newborns with birth weight below the 10(th) centile. A multivariate Gaussian model was fitted to the distribution of log multiples of the median (MoM) PI in the PET and unaffected groups. Likelihood ratios for log MoM PI were computed and used together with maternal variables to produce patient-specific risks for each case. Predicted detection rates (DR) and false-positive rates (FPR) were calculated by taking the proportions with risks above a given risk threshold.

Results: In the unaffected group log MoM PI was influenced by maternal ethnic origin, body mass index, previous history of PET and fetal crown-rump length. In the prediction of PET significant contributions were provided by log MoM PI, ethnic origin, body mass index and previous and family history of PET. For an FPR of 10% the DRs of all PET and PET leading to delivery before 34 weeks' gestation by log MoM PI and maternal variables were 61.7% and 81.8%, respectively.

Conclusion: Maternal variables together with uterine artery PI at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation provide sensitive prediction of the development of PET, especially of severe early-onset PET.