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. 2008 Sep;136(9):1217-24.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268807009788. Epub 2007 Nov 30.

Evaluation of the impact on human salmonellosis of control measures targeted to Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium in poultry breeding using time-series analysis and intervention models in France

E Poirier  1 , L Watier, E Espie, F-X Weill, H De Valk, J-C Desenclos
Affiliations

Evaluation of the impact on human salmonellosis of control measures targeted to Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium in poultry breeding using time-series analysis and intervention models in France

E Poirier et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Sep.

Abstract

In France, salmonellosis is the main cause of foodborne bacterial infection with serotypes Enteritis (SE) and Typhimurium (ST) accounting for 70% of all cases. French authorities implemented a national control programme targeting SE and ST in poultry and eggs from October 1998 onwards. A 33% decrease in salmonellosis has been observed since implementation. We designed an evaluation of the impact of this control programme on SE and ST human infections in France. Using monthly Salmonella human isolate reports to the National Reference Centre we defined two intervention series (SE and ST) and one control series comprising serotypes not know to be associated with poultry or eggs. The series, from 1992 to 2003, were analysed using autoregressive moving average models (ARMA). To test the hypothesis of a reduction of SE and ST human cases >0 after the programme started and to estimate its size, we introduced an intervention model to the ARMA modelling. In contrast to the control series, we found an annual reduction of 555 (95% CI 148-964) SE and of 492 (95% CI 0-1092) ST human infections, representing respectively a 21% and 18% decrease. For SE, the decrease occurred sharply after implementation while for ST, it followed a progressive decrease that started early in 1998. Our study, suggests a true relation between the Salmonella control programme and the subsequent decrease observed for the two targeted serotypes. For ST, however, the decrease prior to the intervention may also reflect control measures implemented earlier by the cattle and milk industry.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Observed number of monthly cases of salmonellosis due to Salmonella Enteritidis, France, 1992–2003.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Observed number of monthly cases of salmonellosis due to Salmonella Typhimurium, France, 1992–2003.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Observed number of monthly cases of salmonellosis due to one of the nine non-poultry serovars, France, 1992–2003.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Comparison of the observed values (––––) and one-step ahead forecast (- - - -) for Salmonella Enteritidis, France, 1992–2003.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Comparison of the observed values (––––) and one-step ahead forecast (- - - -) for Salmonella Typhimurium, France, 1992–2003.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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