Unmeasured confounding caused slightly better response to HAART within than outside a randomized controlled trial

Abstract

Objective: To compare the outcome of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-infected patients initiating equivalent regimens within and outside a randomized controlled trial (RCT).

Study design and setting: The Danish Protease Inhibitor Study (DAPIS) was a national multicenter RCT comparing initial treatment with indinavir, ritonavir, or saquinavir/ritonavir during 96 weeks. From the Danish HIV Cohort Study we identified all patients initiating one of these protease-inhibitor-based HAART regimens: 425 patients within DAPIS and 677 outside the trial. We compared viral load, CD4 count response, and mortality.

Results: At weeks 96 and 240, trial participants were more likely than nonparticipants to have undetectable viral load (adjusted odds ratio [adOR] 1.28 [95% CI=0.94-1.74] and 1.70 [95% CI=1.16-2.50]) and a CD4 increase > or =100 cells/microl (adOR 1.37 [95% CI=1.03-1.82] and 1.53 [95% CI=1.04-2.25]). For antiretroviral-experienced, but not for antiretroviral-naïve patients, trial participants had a lower risk of death (mortality rate ratio [MRR]=0.46 [95% CI=0.27-0.77]) than nonparticipants. This effect was moderated in adjusted analyses (MRR=0.60 [0.33-1.07]).

Conclusions: Compared to nontrial patients, trial participants had better response to HAART. The differences were small defying the notion that results obtained in RCTs are unachievable in routine clinical practice.