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. 2008 Oct;136(10):1328-32.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268807000143. Epub 2008 Jan 4.

Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

D E Noyola  1 , P B Mandeville
Affiliations

Effect of climatological factors on respiratory syncytial virus epidemics

D E Noyola et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Oct.

Abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) presents as yearly epidemics in temperate climates. We analysed the association of atmospheric conditions to RSV epidemics in San Luis Potosí, S.L.P., Mexico. The weekly number of RSV detections from October 2002 and May 2006 were correlated to ambient temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vapour tension, dew point, precipitation, and hours of light using time-series and regression analyses. Of the variation in RSV cases, 49.8% was explained by the study variables. Of the explained variation in RSV cases, 32.5% was explained by the study week and 17.3% was explained by meteorological variables (average daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, temperature at 08:00 hours, and relative humidity at 08:00 hours). We concluded that atmospheric conditions, particularly temperature, partly explain the year to year variability in RSV activity. Identification of additional factors that affect RSV seasonality may help develop a model to predict the onset of RSV epidemics.

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Figures

Fig
Fig
Weekly number of observed (· · · · · · ·) and predicted (–––) respiratory syncytial virus cases.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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