Simple coagulation tests improve survival prediction in patients with septic shock

Abstract

Background: Classic mortality prediction models in intensive care units (ICUs) are based on clinical scores, which do not contain any coagulation test (SAPS-II or SOFA scores).

Objectives: To determine whether coagulation tests can improve mortality prediction in patients with septic shock.

Patients and methods: One hundred fifty-eight consecutive patients with septic shock entering our institution's ICU were investigated on the first day of admission, and deaths were registered during the first month.

Results: Among all the coagulation tests performed, only the fibrinogen (Fg) plasma level, together with the SAPS-II score and the age, were included in our simplified mortality score [area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) 0.927, standard deviation (SD) 0.030], which was more efficient than SAPS-II and SOFA scores themselves in predicting first-week mortality, its optimized cut-off having a very high negative predictive value (NPV) [0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.967-1.000)]. A simplified score predicting first-month mortality, containing the prothrombin ratio and the antithrombin activity values in addition to the age, the hemoglobin concentration, and the SAPS-II and SOFA scores (AUC 0.889, SD 0.026), was found to be superior to the SAPS-II and SOFA scores, the optimized cut-off value having a high NPV (0.952; 95% CI 0.888-1.000).

Conclusions: In patients admitted to an ICU with septic shock, some initial coagulation test values can help identify those who will survive in the first week and then in the first month.