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. 2008 Feb;152(2):191-200.
doi: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2007.07.055. Epub 2007 Oct 31.

Childhood obesity predicts adult metabolic syndrome: the Fels Longitudinal Study

Shumei S Sun  1 , Ruohong Liang, Terry T-K Huang, Stephen R Daniels, Silva Arslanian, Kiang Liu, Gilman D Grave, Roger M Siervogel
Affiliations

Childhood obesity predicts adult metabolic syndrome: the Fels Longitudinal Study

Shumei S Sun et al. J Pediatr. 2008 Feb.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the age of significant divergence in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference in adults with and without the metabolic syndrome, and to provide age- and sex-specific childhood values that predict adult metabolic syndrome.

Study design: Part 1 of this study is a retrospective cohort study of 92 men and 59 women (mean age, 51 years) who had metabolic syndrome and 154 randomly selected adults matched for age and sex who did not have the syndrome. Part 2 is a study of predictive accuracy in a validation sample of 743 participants.

Results: The first appearance of differences between adults with and without metabolic syndrome occurred at ages 8 and 13 for BMI and 6 and 13 for waist circumference in boys and girls, respectively. Odds ratios (ORs) for the metabolic syndrome at 30 years and older ranged from 1.4 to 1.9 across age groups in boys and from 0.8 to 2.8 across age groups in girls if BMI exceeded criterion values in childhood. The corresponding ORs for waist circumference ranged from 2.5 to 31.4 in boys and 1.7 to 2.5 in girls. These ORs increased with the number of examinations.

Conclusions: Children with BMI and waist circumference values exceeding the established criterion values are at increased risk for the adult metabolic syndrome.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Means and standard deviations of BMI in childhood of men and women in the Fels Study with and without the metabolic syndrome (MS) [upper panels] and with or without BMI ≥30 kg/m2 in adulthood [lower panels] plotted on selected BMI percentiles of US CDC growth charts. Data estimated from random effects models with adjustments for birth weight and relative bone age. Vertical lines intersecting the growth curves indicate age at which significant divergence first appears between subjects who will develop the metabolic syndrome [upper panels] or BMI ≥30 kg/m2 [lower panels] in adulthood and those who will not.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Means and standard deviations of waist circumference in childhood of men and women in the Fels Study with and without the metabolic syndrome (MS), and with or without waist circumference exceeding ATP III criteria in adulthood plotted on selected waist circumference percentiles of NHANES III data. Data estimated from random effects models with adjustments for birth weight and relative bone age. Vertical lines intersecting the growth curves indicate age at which significant divergence first appears between subjects who will develop the metabolic syndrome or waist circumference exceeding ATP III criteria and those who will not.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Relative risk of obesity (upper panels) and metabolic syndrome (lower panels) in adulthood by number of examinations in childhood at which BMI exceeded criterion values relative to a single examination at which BMI exceeded criterion values. formula image, 5–8 years; formula image, 8–13 years; formula image, 13–18 years.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Relative risk of centralized fat distribution (upper panels) and metabolic syndrome (lower panels) in adulthood by number of examinations in childhood at which waist circumference exceeded criterion values relative to a single examination at which waist circumference exceeded criterion values. formula image, 5–8 years; formula image, 8–13 years; formula image, 13–18 years.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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