The citius end: world records progression announces the completion of a brief ultra-physiological quest

Abstract

World records (WR) in sports illustrate the ultimate expression of human integrated muscle biology, through speed or strength performances. Analysis and prediction of man's physiological boundaries in sports and impact of external (historical or environmental) conditions on WR occurrence are subject to scientific controversy. Based on the analysis of 3263 WR established for all quantifiable official contests since the first Olympic Games, we show here that WR progression rate follows a piecewise exponential decaying pattern with very high accuracy (mean adjusted r(2) values = 0.91+/-0.08 (s.d.)). Starting at 75% of their estimated asymptotic values in 1896, WR have now reached 99%, and, present conditions prevailing, half of all WR will not be improved by more than 0,05% in 2027. Our model, which may be used to compare future athletic performances or assess the impact of international antidoping policies, forecasts that human species' physiological frontiers will be reached in one generation. This will have an impact on the future conditions of athlete training and on the organization of competitions. It may also alter the Olympic motto and spirit.

Figure 1. Model fitting on 4 events.

A. Women 400 m freestyle (swimming) with biexponential decaying curve, adjusted r_i² = 0.976 and r_ii² = 0.966; B. Men 4×100 m freestyle relay (swimming), r_i² = 0.985, r_ii² = 0.988; C. Men 50 km walk (track), r_i² = 0.972, r_ii² = 0.977; D. Clean & Jerk Super Heavyweight (weight lifting), r_i² = 0.939, r_ii² = 0.937, r_iii² = 0.975 and r_iv² = 0.946. Weight categories were altered in 1948, 1968 and 1992 and control reinforced in 1988–1992 in weight lifting.

Figure 2. Evolution of factor λ : new WR number over official Olympic event number.

Exact numbers (black dots) are filtered with a 60 Hz second order low pass butterworth filter (black curve). World wars show major impact on λ : Δ_wwI = 6.4 years ; Δ_wwII = 13.4 years.

Figure 3. Annual evolution of WR relative improvement: κ decreases from 0.024 in the first 30 years to 0.010 in the last 10 years (Linear model: y = −1.46·10⁻⁴ x+0.301, F(1,102) = 27.14, P<0.001).

This decrease is representative of the growing difficulty to improve previously established WR values.

Figure 4. Distribution of estimated limits at 99.95% of the asymptotic value.

Results are sampled by decades. Half of the asymptotic records will be established in 2027, and 90% in 2068.