Geographic analysis of shigellosis in Vietnam

Abstract

Geographic and ecological analysis may provide investigators useful ecological information for the control of shigellosis. This paper provides distribution of individual Shigella species in space, and ecological covariates for shigellosis in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Data on shigellosis in neighborhoods were used to identify ecological covariates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to obtain joint posterior distribution of model parameters and to construct smoothed risk maps for shigellosis. Neighborhoods with a high proportion of worshippers of traditional religion, close proximity to hospital, or close proximity to the river had increased risk for shigellosis. The ecological covariates associated with Shigella flexneri differed from the covariates for Shigella sonnei. In contrast the spatial distribution of the two species was similar. The disease maps can help identify high-risk areas of shigellosis that can be targeted for interventions. This approach may be useful for the selection of populations and the analysis of vaccine trials.