Frequency of recurrence of atrial fibrillation within 48 hours after ablation and its impact on long-term outcome

Abstract

Because of delayed structural and electrophysiologic effects of radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF), early recurrence of AF after ablation does not necessarily indicate long-term ablation failure. This study was intended to assess the prognostic value of early recurrence of AF within 48 hours after ablation. The study included 234 patients (aged 23 to 80 years; 72% men) with symptomatic drug-resistant paroxysmal (n = 165) or persistent AF (n = 69) who underwent either Lasso-guided segmental pulmonary vein isolation (n = 83) or CARTO-guided left atrial circumferential ablation (n = 151). After a median follow-up of 12.7 months, 64% of patients with paroxysmal and 45% of patients with persistent AF were AF free. Early recurrence of AF occurred in 43% of patients and was more frequently observed in the persistent-AF group (paroxysmal vs persistent 39% vs 54%; p = 0.037). Early recurrence of AF was a significant predictor of long-term ablation failure in univariate (hazard ratio [HR] 2.29, p <0.001) and multivariate (HR 2.17. p <0.001) Cox regression analysis. Nevertheless, 46% of patients with early recurrence of AF were AF free during long-term follow-up compared with 68% of patients without early recurrence of AF. The prognostic value of early recurrence of AF was found in patients with paroxysmal (HR 2.05, p = 0.005) and persistent AF (HR 2.35, p = 0.013). In conclusion, early recurrence of AF within 48 hours after ablation was a significant predictor of a poor long-term ablation outcome. However, because nearly half the patients with early recurrence of AF remained AF free during long-term follow-up, early recurrence of AF should not automatically result in an early repeated procedure.