Estimating road traffic mortality more accurately: use of the capture-recapture method in the West Azarbaijan province of Iran

Abstract

The study estimates the rate of fatal road traffic injuries (RTIs) by population and road-users group in one Iranian province. The capture - recapture method was employed, using both the death register and the forensic medicine register over one year. They recorded totals of 669 and 665 RTIs respectively, giving a non-overlapping number of 897 cases. An estimate of 1018 fatalities occurred, at rates of 34 per 100,000 of the population for all road users aggregated, 10 per 100,000 for pedestrians and 25 per 100,000 for other road users. Coverage was somewhat better for victims less than 15 years of age, and also for males. The method showed 121 under-reported cases in both sources; however, it can help Iranian policy-makers to produce a good estimation of fatal RTIs number each year, when following up current RTIs-prevention programmes. Yet, given that each registry operates separately, optimum coverage will only be obtained when both sources are integrated and work together.