Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2008 Apr 22;98(8):1457-66.
doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6604305. Epub 2008 Mar 18.

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers: updates and extensions

A C Antoniou  1 , A P Cunningham, J Peto, D G Evans, F Lalloo, S A Narod, H A Risch, J E Eyfjord, J L Hopper, M C Southey, H Olsson, O Johannsson, A Borg, B Pasini, P Radice, S Manoukian, D M Eccles, N Tang, E Olah, H Anton-Culver, E Warner, J Lubinski, J Gronwald, B Gorski, L Tryggvadottir, K Syrjakoski, O-P Kallioniemi, H Eerola, H Nevanlinna, P D P Pharoah, D F Easton
Affiliations

The BOADICEA model of genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers: updates and extensions

A C Antoniou et al. Br J Cancer. .

Erratum in

  • Br J Cancer. 2008 Jun 17;98(12):2015. Passini, B [corrected to Pasini, B]

Abstract

Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920-1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program (http://www.srl.cam.ac.uk/genepi/boadicea/boadicea_home.html).

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Average cumulative breast cancer risks for BRCA1 mutation carriers by birth cohort assumed in BOADICEA.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Average cumulative ovarian cancer risks for BRCA1 mutation carriers by birth cohort assumed in BOADICEA.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Average cumulative breast cancer risks for BRCA2 mutation carriers by birth cohort assumed in BOADICEA.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Average cumulative ovarian cancer risks for BRCA2 mutation carriers by birth cohort assumed in BOADICEA.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The extended BOADICEA transition model for female patients.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr 19: 716–726
    1. Anglian Breast Cancer Study Group (2000) Prevalence and penetrance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in a population-based series of breast cancer cases. Br J Cancer 83: 1301–1308 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Antoniou A, Pharoah PD, Narod S, Risch HA, Eyfjord JE, Hopper JL, Loman N, Olsson H, Johannsson O, Borg A, Pasini B, Radice P, Manoukian S, Eccles DM, Tang N, Olah E, Anton-Culver H, Warner E, Lubinski J, Gronwald J, Gorski B, Tulinius H, Thorlacius S, Eerola H, Nevanlinna H, Syrjakoski K, Kallioniemi OP, Thompson D, Evans C, Peto J, Lalloo F, Evans DG, Easton DF (2003) Average risks of breast and ovarian cancer associated with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations detected in case series unselected for family history: a combined analysis of 22 studies. Am J Hum Genet 72: 1117–1130 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Antoniou AC, Durocher F, Smith P, Simard J, Easton DF (2005) BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation predictions using the BOADICEA and BRCAPRO models and penetrance estimation in high-risk French-Canadian families. Breast Cancer Res 8: R3. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Antoniou AC, Hardy R, Walker L, Evans DG, Shenton A, Eeles R, Shanley S, Pichert G, Izatt L, Rose S, Douglas F, Eccles D, Morrison PJ, Scott J, Zimmern RL, Easton DF, Pharoah PDP. Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation study of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics. J Med Genet (in press a) - PubMed

Publication types