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. 2008 Jun 22;275(1641):1441-8.
doi: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0179.

The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

Marcel Cardillo  1 , Georgina M Mace, John L Gittleman, Kate E Jones, Jon Bielby, Andy Purvis
Affiliations

The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

Marcel Cardillo et al. Proc Biol Sci. .

Abstract

Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median R2=0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median R2=0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Partitioning of variance in extinction risk among four different types of predictors. (a) Taxon-specific models and (b) region-specific models.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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