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. 2008 May;98(5):905-15.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2007.115931. Epub 2008 Apr 1.

Long-term trends in adolescent and young adult smoking in the United States: metapatterns and implications

David E Nelson  1 , Paul Mowery, Kat Asman, Linda L Pederson, Patrick M O'Malley, Ann Malarcher, Edward W Maibach, Terry F Pechacek
Affiliations

Long-term trends in adolescent and young adult smoking in the United States: metapatterns and implications

David E Nelson et al. Am J Public Health. 2008 May.

Abstract

Objectives: We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns.

Methods: We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18-24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence.

Results: Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education.

Conclusions: Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Trends in cigarette smoking among US adolescents and young adults overall (a), among 12th-, 10th-, and 8th- grade boys and girls (b), and among 12th-grade students, by race/ethnicity (c): Monitoring the Future, 1976–2005.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Trends in cigarette smoking among US adults aged 18 to 24 years, by gender (a), race/ethnicity (b), and education level (c): National Health Interview Survey, 1974–2005.
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