Predictors of change in estimated GFR: a population-based 7-year follow-up from the Tromso study

Abstract

Background: Chronic kidney disease is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, and even mild impairment of renal function is a cardiovascular risk factor. Several studies have investigated the risk factors for the development of end-stage renal disease, but little is known about predictors of change in renal function in the general population.

Methods: The present study included 2249 men and 2192 women without signs of kidney disease at baseline who were followed for 7 years from 1994 to 1995 in the Tromsø Study. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study equation. Gender-specific multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess predictors of change in eGFR (DeltaGFR).

Results: Change in eGFR, measured in ml/min/1.73 m(2)/year, was associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) [beta-value for a 10-mmHg increase in SBP, men = -0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.18 to -0.09; women = -0.07, 95% CI = -0.11 to -0.03] and fibrinogen [beta-value for 1 SD increase in fibrinogen, men (1 SD: 0.85 g/L) = -0.12, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.03; women (1 SD: 0.80) = -0.11, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.02]. High alcohol consumption in men and high physical activity in women predicted an increase in eGFR. Higher albumin/creatinine ratio was associated with a decline in eGFR in men only.

Conclusions: Some risk factors for change in GFR seem to be gender specific but both high SBP and high levels of fibrinogen contribute to a more rapid decline in GFR for both men and women.