Effect of population ageing on future demand for physicians: a case study of Nova Scotia, Canada, 2000-2025

Abstract

The health care system has been under pressure for some time to keep pace with its health human resource (HHR) requirements. Future demographic trends, however, are magnifying these pressures. Because of the lengthy training period for physicians, closing the physician supply and demand gap requires time. This paper attempts to explore the future utilization of physicians in terms of full-time equivalent (FTE) in Nova Scotia to the year 2025 by four general types of medical disciplines: General Physicians, Medical Specialties, Surgical Specialties, and Diagnostic Specialties. Further, it makes projections by most responsible diagnosis, in- and out-hospital status, age and sex of the patients. The study shows that for paediatric patients, the incidence of all diseases would decline and for patients between age 15 and 54, the incidence of disease would either decline or increase marginally. Consistent with the baby boom ageing wave, the prevalence of disease would increase significantly for those above 54 years. This would result in requirements for all categories of physicians to decline for patients below age 54, in contrast with those 55 years of age and over where the demand would substantially increase. It is found that the growth in the requirements would be highest for diagnostic specialists, followed by surgical specialists, medical specialists, and the general practitioners.