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Comparative Study
. 2008 Jul;19(4):563-70.
doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816d652d.

Temperature and mortality in nine US cities

Antonella Zanobetti  1 , Joel Schwartz
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Temperature and mortality in nine US cities

Antonella Zanobetti et al. Epidemiology. 2008 Jul.

Abstract

Background: Extreme temperatures have been associated with increased mortality worldwide. The extent to which air pollutants may confound or modify this association remains unclear.

Methods: We examined the association between mean apparent temperature and total mortality in 9 cities across the United States during the warm season (May to September) from 1999 to 2002. We applied case-crossover and time-series analyses, adjusting for day of the week and season in time-series analysis. City-specific estimates were then combined using a meta-analysis. A total of 213,438 deaths for all causes occurred in these cities during the study period.

Results: We found that mortality increased with apparent temperature. A 5.5 degrees C (10 degrees F) increase in apparent temperature was associated with an increase in mortality of 1.8% (95% confidence interval = 1.09% to 2.5%) when using case-crossover analysis and with an increase of 2.7% (2.0% to 3.5%) using the time-series analysis.

Conclusions: This study provides evidence of increased mortality due to elevated apparent temperature exposure, with no confounding or effect modification due to air pollution.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
City-specific plots of the smoothing function (solid line) of apparent temperature over all year, with 95% CIs (dashed line).
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Percent increase (and 95% CI) in nonaccidental mortality for an increase in mean apparent temperature of 5.5°C (10°F) in 9 US cities; city-specific and meta-analysis results using case-crossover and time-series analysis.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
For Boston, MA: 3-dimensional plot of the bivariate thin plate spline between apparent temperature and ozone lag 01, with 2 degrees of freedom.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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