Frequency interpretation of ambiguous statistical information facilitates Bayesian reasoning

Abstract

The idea that naturally sampled frequencies facilitate performance in statistical reasoning tasks because they are a cognitively privileged representational format has been challenged by findings that similarly structured numbers presented as chances similarly facilitate performance, on the basis of the claim that these are technically single-event probabilities. A crucial opinion, however, is that of the research participants, who possibly interpret chances as de facto frequencies. A series of experiments here indicate that not only is performance improved by clearly presented natural frequencies, rather than chances phrasing, but also that participants who interpreted chances as frequencies, rather than as probabilities, were consistently better at statistical reasoning. This result was found across different variations of information presentation and across different populations.