The interaction between impaired acute insulin response and insulin resistance predict type 2 diabetes and impairment of fasting glucose

Abstract

Background: Impaired acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin resistance (IR) are characteristics of Type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The aim was to develop risk models for T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), reflecting estimates both of AIR and IR, and of their interaction, as predictors over 20 years of follow-up.

Methods: We developed predictive models using hierarchic multiple regression analyses in a population-based cohort of 1227 men with normal fasting blood glucose at baseline (1970-73) and were reinvestigated after 10 and after 20 years. Using IVGTT-variables correlated either to AIR or to IR, separate models were developed. Combined models were also estimated from which prediction scores, representing individual risk, were calculated.

Results: In combined models, interaction between prediction scores reflecting AIR and IR predicted T2DM and IFG. Lowest tertile of AIR and the highest tertile of IR showed a relative risk (RR) of 15.3 (95%-CI=5.58-41.84) for T2DM compared to the contrast group (high AIR and low IR). Corresponding RR for IFG was 13.23 (95%-CI=6.53-26.78). C-statistic increased from 0.76 to 0.79 (p=0.018) for T2DM and from 0.77 to 0.80 for IFG (p=0.062) taking interaction into account. Main effects of lowest tertile of AIR and highest tertile of IR versus best were: RR for T2DM, 8.80 (95%-CI=4.25-18.21) and 6.31 (95%-CI=3.26-12.21); for IFG, 9.07, (95%-CI=5.38-15.29) and 4.49 (95%-CI=2.98-6-76).

Conclusion: The interaction between low AIR and high IR revealed a high relative risk for T2DM or IFG reflecting the interplay between these factors over long time on worsening glucose tolerance and development of manifest disease.