A mathematical model of a crocodilian population using delay-differential equations

Abstract

The crocodilia have multiple interesting characteristics that affect their population dynamics. They are among several reptile species which exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in which the temperature of egg incubation determines the sex of the hatchlings. Their life parameters, specifically birth and death rates, exhibit strong age-dependence. We develop delay-differential equation (DDE) models describing the evolution of a crocodilian population. In using the delay formulation, we are able to account for both the TSD and the age-dependence of the life parameters while maintaining some analytical tractability. In our single-delay model we also find an equilibrium point and prove its local asymptotic stability. We numerically solve the different models and investigate the effects of multiple delays on the age structure of the population as well as the sex ratio of the population. For all models we obtain very strong agreement with the age structure of crocodilian population data as reported in Smith and Webb (Aust. Wild. Res. 12, 541-554, 1985). We also obtain reasonable values for the sex ratio of the simulated population.