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. 2008 Jun 17:4:21.
doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-4-21.

Spatial analysis of BSE cases in the Netherlands

Lourens Heres  1 , Dick J Brus, Thomas J Hagenaars
Affiliations

Spatial analysis of BSE cases in the Netherlands

Lourens Heres et al. BMC Vet Res. .

Abstract

Background: In many of the European countries affected by Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), case clustering patterns have been observed. Most of these patterns have been interpreted in terms of heterogeneities in exposure of cattle to the BSE agent. Here we investigate whether spatial clustering is present in the Dutch BSE case data.

Results: We have found three spatial case clusters in the Dutch BSE epidemic. The clusters are geographically distinct and each cluster appears in a different birth cohort. When testing all birth cohorts together, only one significant cluster was detected. The fact that we found stronger spatial clustering when using a cohort-based analysis, is consistent with the evidence that most BSE infections occur in animals less than 12 or 18 months old.

Conclusion: Significant spatial case clustering is present in the Dutch BSE epidemic. The spatial clusters of BSE cases are most likely due to time-dependent heterogeneities in exposure related to feed production.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Spatial BSE case clusters. Spatial clusters of BSE cases detected in an analysis not accounting for birth cohort.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cohort-specific spatial BSE case clusters. Spatial clusters of BSE cases detected in a cohort-wise analysis in the 1 January 1994 – 31 December 1994 birth cohort (red), the 1 January 1996 – 31 December 1996 birth cohort (blue) and the 1 January 1997 – 31 December 1997 birth cohort (magenta).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Case farms supplied by one particular feed producer. Locations of all farms that had BSE cases and were supplied by feed producer A [1].
Figure 4
Figure 4
Case farms supplied by one particular feed producer. Locations of all farms that had BSE cases and were supplied by feed producer K [1].
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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