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. 2008 Aug;84 Suppl 1(Suppl_1):i37-i41.
doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.031195.

The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine's national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007

Y V Kruglov  1 , Y V Kobyshcha, T Salyuk, O Varetska, A Shakarishvili, V P Saldanha
Affiliations

The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine's national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007

Y V Kruglov et al. Sex Transm Infect. 2008 Aug.

Abstract

Objective: To revise the national HIV estimates and quantify the magnitude of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine at the end of 2007.

Design: Internationally recommended methods-the Workbook and Spectrum-were employed to generate the estimates. This enables comparison of results with other countries using the same methodology.

Methods: Estimation of the size of most at-risk populations nationally was performed using capture-recapture, multiplier and triangulation methods. HIV prevalence among most at-risk populations was estimated by linked HIV sentinel and behavioural surveillance among injecting drug users, and men who have sex with men, and unlinked sentinel surveillance among sex workers. The range of HIV prevalence and extrapolation for populations at lower risk were determined by consensus among national stakeholders. Results were reviewed by national stakeholders and endorsed by the government of Ukraine.

Results: At the end of 2007, an estimated 395 000 adults (range 230 000-573 000) aged 15-49 were living with HIV in Ukraine. Adult HIV prevalence was estimated at 1.63%, which represents the highest adult HIV prevalence of any country in Europe.

Conclusions: The HIV epidemic in Ukraine continues to grow at a record pace, concentrated among most at-risk populations, the majority of whom are unaware of their HIV status. The results emphasise the need to accelerate the coverage and quality of prevention programmes among most at-risk populations and their sexual partners.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. HIV point prevalence curve in Ukraine, 1987–2007.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. National AIDS Prevention Centre/Ministry of Health Information bulletin No 29. HIV infection in Ukraine in 2007. Kyiv: National AIDS Prevention Centre/Ministry of Health, 2008
    1. Ukrainian AIDS Centre, Ministry of Health of Ukraine, World Health Organization, International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS Report on the national consensus estimates on HIV and AIDS in Ukraine as of end of 2005. Kyiv, 2006
    1. UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections Improvements to estimation packages. Report of a meeting of the UNAIDS Reference Group for Estimates, Modelling and Projections held in Glion, Switzerland, 19–20 July 2006
    1. International HIV/AIDS Alliance in Ukraine Estimation of the size of most at risk populations for HIV (injection drug users, female sex workers, men who have sex with men). Kyiv, 2006
    1. UNAIDS/WHO Working Group on HIV/AIDS Estimating the size of populations at risk for HIV. Issues and Methods. July 2003

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