Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany

Abstract

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2 degrees C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2,995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.

Figure 1

Percentages of species (a) loss, (b) gain and (c) turnover from GLM (6′×10′) for the GRAS scenario for Germany. Modelled estimates of loss, gain, turnover across models (GLM, GAM and RF) showed high agreement (table S2 in the electronic supplementary material).

Figure 2

Estimated change in SR (a) using no limitation in species dispersal and (b) with limitation in dispersal computed as difference between modelled future and current SR per grid cell (n=2995 grid cells, 845 species). White boxes, SEDG; light grey boxes, BAMBU; dark grey boxes, GRAS.