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. 2008 Dec;47(6):619-23.
doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2008.07.012. Epub 2008 Jul 29.

Who exceeds ATP-III risk thresholds? Systematic examination of the effect of varying age and risk factor levels in the ATP-III risk assessment tool

Margaret W Cavanaugh-Hussey  1 , Jarett D Berry, Donald M Lloyd-Jones
Affiliations

Who exceeds ATP-III risk thresholds? Systematic examination of the effect of varying age and risk factor levels in the ATP-III risk assessment tool

Margaret W Cavanaugh-Hussey et al. Prev Med. 2008 Dec.

Abstract

Objective: We sought to determine the levels of risk factors required to exceed threshold values of intermediate (> or = 10%) or high (> 20%) predicted 10-year risk for coronary heart disease using the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) Risk Assessment Tool.

Methods: Continuous risk factor values were entered into the risk assessment tool to examine levels of predicted 10-year risk. Both individual risk factors and the joint effects of varying multiple risk factors were systematically examined.

Results: Women only exceed 10% risk at ages > or = 70 with single risk factors of HDL-cholesterol levels < 30 mg/dL or systolic blood pressure > 170 mm Hg. Women < or = 65 only exceed 10% risk if they are smokers with low HDL-cholesterol levels. In contrast, single risk factors can cause men over 45 to exceed 10% or 20% predicted 10-year risk. Combinations of only modestly elevated risk factors cause many men to exceed 10% risk at ages > or = 45, and to exceed 20% risk at ages > or = 55.

Conclusions: Because such high-risk factor levels are required for men < 45 years and women < 65 years to exceed ATP-III risk thresholds, additional means for risk communication may be needed for individuals with elevated risk factors in these age ranges.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Ten-year predicted risks, using the ATP-III Risk Assessment Tool, across levels of single risk factors in men (Panels A-C) and women (Panels E-F) at selected ages, with other risk factors held constant at approximate age-adjusted average values.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Ten-year predicted risks, using the ATP-III Risk Assessment Tool, for men and women at selected ages, with risk factors held constant at approximate age-adjusted average values.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Ten-year predicted risks, using the ATP-III Risk Assessment Tool, across levels of multiple risk factors in men at age 45 years and women at age 65 years.
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