Using internet searches for influenza surveillance

Abstract

The Internet is an important source of health information. Thus, the frequency of Internet searches may provide information regarding infectious disease activity. As an example, we examined the relationship between searches for influenza and actual influenza occurrence. Using search queries from the Yahoo! search engine ( http://search.yahoo.com ) from March 2004 through May 2008, we counted daily unique queries originating in the United States that contained influenza-related search terms. Counts were divided by the total number of searches, and the resulting daily fraction of searches was averaged over the week. We estimated linear models, using searches with 1-10-week lead times as explanatory variables to predict the percentage of cultures positive for influenza and deaths attributable to pneumonia and influenza in the United States. With use of the frequency of searches, our models predicted an increase in cultures positive for influenza 1-3 weeks in advance of when they occurred (P < .001), and similar models predicted an increase in mortality attributable to pneumonia and influenza up to 5 weeks in advance (P < .001). Search-term surveillance may provide an additional tool for disease surveillance.