Seasonal pattern of incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction in a Japanese population (from the Takashima AMI Registry, 1988 to 2003)

Abstract

We examined the seasonal variations in the incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a geographically defined population using 16-year AMI registration data. It remains unclear whether the incident events of AMI display any seasonal variation. Documentation of such a pattern may foster investigation for understanding the potential mechanisms responsible for these effects and may provide novel avenues for prevention of AMI. Data were obtained from the Takashima AMI Registry, which covers an entire community of approximately 55,000 in central Japan. There were 335 definite cases of AMI during 1988 to 2003 (217 men, 118 women). Of these, there were 96 fatal cases (53 men, 43 women) within 28 days of onset. Incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) and case fatality rates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated across seasons. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate the incidence rate, and case fatality ratios adjusted for age and gender. The AMI incidence rate was higher in winter (44.9, 95% CI 35.9 to 53.9) and spring (44.1, 95% CI 35.3 to 52.9) than the other seasons. After adjustment for age and gender, AMI risk was 1.4 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.9) times higher in winter and was 1.4 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.9) times higher in spring than summer. The 28-day AMI case fatality rate was also higher in winter (34.4%, 95% CI 24.9 to 43.9) and spring (32.3%, 95% CI 22.9 to 41.7). Age- and gender-adjusted fatality risk was 2.4 (95% CI 1.2 to 4.9) times higher in winter and 2.3 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.6) times higher in spring than summer. In conclusion, higher AMI incidence and case fatality rates were observed in winter and spring in a Japanese population.