Probabilities and preferences: what economics can teach doctors and patients making difficult treatment decisions

Abstract

Both for calculating probabilities and considering patient preferences, economics can provide useful analytic tools for those making decisions about risky treatments. For probabilities, integrated and absolute numbers should be preferred to partial and relative ones. Preferences become particularly important in cases where no treatment shows an equal or higher probability for all groups of better outcomes, or for cases where patients' values regarding outcomes can be expected to differ. Moreover, preferences can take account of more than just outcomes themselves; tradeoffs between the short- and long-term, as well as tolerance for risk and anxiety, may also be important.