Factors associated with viral rebound among highly treatment-experienced HIV-positive patients who have achieved viral suppression

Abstract

Objective: More and more highly treatment-experienced patients are achieving viral suppression. However, the durability of suppression remains unclear.

Methods: Patients from Royal Free Hospital (London, UK) and JW Goethe University Hospital (Frankfurt, Germany) who had failed > or = 1 antiretroviral (ARV) regimen in all three main drug classes and > or = 3 previous ARV regimens and subsequently achieved viral load < 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL were included. They were followed until stopping pre-combination antiretroviral therapy, end of follow-up or viral rebound (two viral loads >400 copies/mL).

Results: Two hundred and forty-seven patients contributed 723 person-years and 114 viral rebounds [rate=15.8 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI) 12.9-18.7]. More recent calendar years of viral suppression [relative risk (RR)=0.90 per year later; 95% CI 0.81-1.00; P=0.05] and greater number of ARVs in the regimen not previously failed (RR=0.78 per 1 ARV more; 95% CI 0.65-0.95; P=0.01) were associated with lower viral rebound rates. At 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 and > 3 years after achieving suppression, the rebound rates were 30.9, 9.2, 4.3 and 3.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. Compared to 0-1 years, the adjusted RRs (95% CIs) after 1-2, 2-3 and > 3 years were 0.33 (0.18-0.58), 0.21 (0.09-0.48) and 0.14 (0.06-0.33), respectively (P<0.0001).

Conclusions: Although rebound rates are high, especially in the first year after viral suppression, this risk reduces substantially if highly treatment-experienced patients can maintain viral suppression.