Ecological niche of the 2003 west nile virus epidemic in the northern great plains of the United States

Abstract

Background: The incidence of West Nile virus (WNv) has remained high in the northern Great Plains compared to the rest of the United States. However, the reasons for the sustained high risk of WNv transmission in this region have not been determined. To assess the environmental drivers of WNv in the northern Great Plains, we analyzed the county-level spatial pattern of human cases during the 2003 epidemic across a seven-state region.

Methodology/principal findings: County-level data on WNv cases were examined using spatial cluster analysis, and were used to fit statistical models with weather, climate, and land use variables as predictors. In 2003 there was a single large cluster of elevated WNv risk encompassing North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska along with portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming. The relative risk of WNv remained high within the boundaries of this cluster from 2004-2007. WNv incidence during the 2003 epidemic was found to have a stronger relationship with long-term climate patterns than with annual weather in either 2002 or 2003. WNv incidence increased with mean May-July temperature and had a unimodal relationship with total May-July precipitation. WNv incidence also increased with the percentage of irrigated cropland and with the percentage of the human population living in rural areas.

Conclusions/significance: The spatial pattern of WNv cases during the 2003 epidemic in the northern Great Plains was associated with both climatic gradients and land use patterns. These results were interpreted as evidence that environmental conditions across much of the northern Great Plains create a favorable ecological niche for Culex tarsalis, a particularly efficient vector of WNv. Further research is needed to determine the proximal causes of sustained WNv transmission and to enhance strategies for disease prevention.

Figure 1. Incidence of WNv expressed as the number of annual cases per 100,000 people.

The boundaries of the 2003 cluster were determined using a spatial scan statistic.

Figure 2. Environmental variables used in the final model of 2003 WNv incidence.

a) mean May–July temperature from 1971–2000, b) total May–July precipitation from 1971–2000, c) percent area of irrigated cropland, and d) percent of the population living in rural areas.

Figure 3. Logarithm of the standardized incidence rate as a function of environmental variables.

The smoothed response surfaces were generated using local regression models.