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. 2009 Apr;39(5):591-7.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2008.10.014. Epub 2008 Dec 3.

Spatial heterogeneity of parasite co-infection: Determinants and geostatistical prediction at regional scales

Simon Brooker  1 , Archie C A Clements
Affiliations

Spatial heterogeneity of parasite co-infection: Determinants and geostatistical prediction at regional scales

Simon Brooker et al. Int J Parasitol. 2009 Apr.

Abstract

Multiple parasite infections are widespread in the developing world and understanding their geographical distribution is important for spatial targeting of differing intervention packages. We investigated the spatial epidemiology of mono- and co-infection with helminth parasites in East Africa and developed a geostatistical model to predict infection risk. The data used for the analysis were taken from standardised school surveys of Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm (Ancylostoma duodenale/Necator americanus) carried out between 1999 and 2005 in East Africa. Prevalence of mono- and co-infection was modelled using satellite-derived environmental and demographic variables as potential predictors. A Bayesian multi-nominal geostatistical model was developed for each infection category for producing maps of predicted co-infection risk. We show that heterogeneities in co-infection with S. mansoni and hookworm are influenced primarily by the distribution of S. mansoni, rather than the distribution of hookworm, and that temperature, elevation and distance to large water bodies are reliable predictors of the spatial large-scale distribution of co-infection. On the basis of these results, we developed a validated geostatistical model of the distribution of co-infection at a scale that is relevant for planning regional disease control efforts that simultaneously target multiple parasite species.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Observed heterogeneity of parasite co-infection among schoolchildren in East Africa. (A) Frequency distribution and (B) geographical distribution of mono- and co-infection with Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm among 27,729 schoolchildren from 395 schools in East Africa.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Predicted distribution of (A) Schistosoma mansoni mono-infection, (B) hookworm mono-infection, (C) S. mansoni–hookworm co-infection, and (D) SD of the predicted S. mansoni–hookworm co-infection among schoolchildren in East Africa. Note the different legend categories for each map for presentation purposes.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Map of the spatial random effect (RE) component of the predictions for Schistosoma mansoni–hookworm co-infection.
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