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. 2009 Mar;99(3):487-92.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2008.137679. Epub 2008 Dec 23.

Perceptions of smoking-related risks and benefits as predictors of adolescent smoking initiation

Anna V Song  1 , Holly E R Morrell, Jodi L Cornell, Malena E Ramos, Michael Biehl, Rhonda Y Kropp, Bonnie L Halpern-Felsher
Affiliations

Perceptions of smoking-related risks and benefits as predictors of adolescent smoking initiation

Anna V Song et al. Am J Public Health. 2009 Mar.

Abstract

Objectives: The predictive value of perceptions of smoking-related risks and benefits with regard to adolescent smoking initiation has not been adequately established. We used prospective, longitudinal data to directly test whether smoking-related perceptions predict smoking initiation among adolescents.

Methods: We administered surveys assessing perceptions of smoking-related risks and benefits to 395 high school students, beginning at the start of their ninth-grade year. We conducted follow-up assessments every 6 months until the end of 10th grade, obtaining 4 waves of data.

Results: Adolescents who held the lowest perceptions of long-term smoking-related risks were 3.64 times more likely to start smoking than were adolescents who held the highest perceptions of risk. Adolescents who held the lowest perceptions of short-term smoking-related risks were 2.68 times more likely to initiate. Adolescents who held the highest perceptions of smoking-related benefits were 3.31 times more likely to initiate.

Conclusions: Findings from this study provide one of the first sets of empirical evidence to show that smoking initiation is directly related to smoking-related perceptions of risks and benefits. Thus, efforts to reduce adolescent smoking should continue to communicate the health risks of smoking and counteract perceptions of benefits associated with smoking.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Distribution of adolescents' perceptions of long-term risks of smoking, by chance estimate quartiles. Note. The first quartile represents estimates of the likelihood of experiencing long-term negative consequences that are from 20% to 69%; the second quartile, 70% to 83%; the third quartile, 84% to 93%; and the fourth quartile, 94% to 100%.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Distribution of adolescents' perceptions of short-term risks of smoking, by chance estimate quartiles. Note. The first quartile represents estimates of the likelihood of experiencing short-term negative consequences that are from 20% to 69%; the second quartile, 70% to 83%; the third quartile, 84% to 93%; and the fourth quartile, 94% to 100%.
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Distribution of adolescents' perceptions of benefits of smoking, by chance estimate quartiles. Note. The first quartile represents estimates of the likelihood of experiencing benefits are from 20% to 69%; the second quartile, 70% to 83%; the third quartile, 84% to 93%; and the fourth quartile, 94% to 100%.
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