Life expectancy and age-period-cohort effects: analysis and projections of mortality in Spain between 1977 and 2016

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to: (1) assess Spanish mortality trends between 1977 and 2001 and their impact on life expectancy; and (2) assess the differences in life expectancy between men and women for the period 2002-2016.

Study design: Time trends study using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

Methods: A Bayesian APC model was fitted to describe Spanish mortality rates for the period 1977-2001 and to project Spanish mortality rates for 2002-2016. Life expectancy was predicted through Chiang's method using projected mortality rates.

Results: There was a significant cohort effect for Spanish mortality, showing a slight increase in mortality among men aged 20-39 years between 1986 and 1997 (birth cohorts 1940-1970). Life expectancy is expected to increase by approximately 0.5% in men and women between 1977 and 2016 (1 year per 5-year period). Life expectancy for males born between 2012 and 2016 will be 77.15 years, compared with 84.95 years for females born during the same period.

Conclusions: The rising trend in mortality among the 1940-1970 cohorts may be due to the increased risk of avoidable causes of death related to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, traffic accidents, and drug and alcohol abuse during the mid 1980s. The decline in mortality rates in recent years could lead to a mean increase in life expectancy of 1 year per 5-year period in both genders between 2002 and 2016. An increase in life expectancy for women and a levelling off for men is expected for age groups older than 79 years.