The history of the "natural history" of hepatitis C (1968-2009)

Abstract

In the late 1960's, only types A and B hepatitis were believed to exist, distinguished by circumstances of exposure and incubation periods. In the early 1970's, studies of transfusion recipients were begun with the belief that hepatitis B would be responsible should transfusion-associated hepatitis develop. After discovery of the viruses of hepatitis A and B, neither agent was found responsible, hence non-A, non-B (NANB) hepatitis. Initial follow-up of these cases showed that approximately 50% developed chronic hepatitis based on persistence of serum enzymes for at least 6 months. Approximately 15 years later, after the hepatitis C virus had been identified as the cause for NANB hepatitis, chronic hepatitis was found to develop more frequently as indicated by persistent viral infection in over 80% of infected adults but in only about 50% of infected children or young women. Follow-up over 2 to 4 decades indicated that many infected persons developed progressive hepatic fibrosis, sometimes culminating in cirrhosis and/or liver cancer. Long-term natural history studies have proved to be challenging because disease onset is often silent and progression extremely slow. Differing strategies have been used to determine the natural history, the descriptions and results of which are presented in this review.

Fig. 1

Strategies used to establish the natural history of hepatitis C (31).

Fig. 2

Estimated prevalence of cirrhosis at 20 years after infection according to strategy of case identification. Meta-analysis and metaregression based on 111 reported natural history studies (105).