Development and validation of an acute kidney injury risk index for patients undergoing general surgery: results from a national data set

Abstract

Background: The authors sought to identify the incidence, risk factors, and mortality impact of acute kidney injury (AKI) after general surgery using a large and representative national clinical data set.

Methods: The 2005-2006 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program participant use data file is a compilation of outcome data from general surgery procedures performed in 121 US medical centers. The primary outcome was AKI within 30 days, defined as an increase in serum creatinine of at least 2 mg/dl or acute renal failure necessitating dialysis. A variety of patient comorbidities and operative characteristics were evaluated as possible predictors of AKI. A logistic regression full model fit was used to create an AKI model and risk index. Thirty-day mortality among patients with and without AKI was compared.

Results: Of 152,244 operations reviewed, 75,952 met the inclusion criteria, and 762 (1.0%) were complicated by AKI. The authors identified 11 independent preoperative predictors: age 56 yr or older, male sex, emergency surgery, intraperitoneal surgery, diabetes mellitus necessitating oral therapy, diabetes mellitus necessitating insulin therapy, active congestive heart failure, ascites, hypertension, mild preoperative renal insufficiency, and moderate preoperative renal insufficiency. The c statistic for a simplified risk index was 0.80 in the derivation and validation cohorts. Class V patients (six or more risk factors) had a 9% incidence of AKI. Overall, patients experiencing AKI had an eightfold increase in 30-day mortality.

Conclusions: Approximately 1% of general surgery cases are complicated by AKI. The authors have developed a robust risk index based on easily identified preoperative comorbidities and patient characteristics.