Health spending projections through 2018: recession effects add uncertainty to the outlook

Abstract

During the projection period (2008-2018), average annual growth in national health spending is projected to be 6.2 percent-2.1 percentage points faster than average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The health share of GDP is anticipated to rise rapidly from 16.2 percent in 2007 to 17.6 percent in 2009, largely as a result of the recession, and then climb to 20.3 percent by 2018. Public payers are expected to become the largest source of funding for health care in 2016 and are projected to pay for more than half of all national health spending in 2018.