The Predictive Validity of Optimism and Affectivity in a Longitudinal Study of Older Adults

Abstract

The current study tested the independence of dispositional optimism and pessimism from negative and positive affectivity in the prediction of older adults' well-being, concurrently and five years later, using structural equation modeling. As hypothesized, in a community sample, both optimism/pessimism and affectivity were correlated cross-sectionally and prospectively with outcomes representing general health and well-being (self-rated health, somatic depression and life satisfaction). However, with both sets of predictors in the model, affectivity eliminated the relationships of optimism/pessimism with the outcomes. Our proposed explanation for these findings, derived from the theoretical self-regulation model, also explains the seemingly contradictory previous findings of an independent contribution of dispositional optimism in patient samples coping with specific stressors.

Figure 1

Structural equation model of the associations between optimism and three outcome variables (standardized parameter estimates), χ² (320, N = 525)=453.79, p<.001, NNFI=.964, CFI=.970, RMSEA=.028, SRMR=.046. In this and the next figures: Solid lines represent statistically significant paths (p<.05). Broken lines represent paths that are not statistically significant. Measured indicators, their errors, and correlations between measurement errors of the same indicators at two times are not shown. All R-squared values are statistically significant at p<.01.

Figure 2

Structural equation model of the associations between affect and three outcome variables (standardized parameter estimates), χ² (320, N=525)= 444.67, p<.001, NNFI=.976, CFI=.980, RMSEA=.027, SRMR=.055.

Figure 3

Structural equation model of the associations between optimism and affect and three outcome variables (standardized parameter estimates), χ² (684, N=525)=893.30, p<.001, NNFI=.971, CFI=.975, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=.049.