Assessing exposure to allied ground troops in the Vietnam War: a quantitative evaluation of the Stellman Exposure Opportunity Index model

Abstract

The Exposure Opportunity Index (EOI) is a proximity-based model developed to estimate relative exposure of ground troops in Vietnam to aerially applied herbicides. We conducted a detailed quantitative evaluation of the EOI model by using actual herbicide spray missions isolated in time and space. EOI scores were calculated for each of 36 hypothetical receptor location points associated with each spray mission for 30 herbicide missions for two time periods - day of herbicide application and day 2-3 post-application. Our analysis found an enormous range of EOI predictions with 500-1000-fold differences across missions directly under the flight path. This quantitative examination of the EOI suggests that extensive testing of the model's code is warranted. Researchers undertaking development of a proximity-based exposure model for epidemiologic studies of either Vietnam veterans or the Vietnamese population should conduct a thorough and realistic analysis of how precise and accurate the model results are likely to be and then assess whether the model results provide a useful basis for their planned epidemiologic studies.