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. 2009 Feb;52(2):193-7.
doi: 10.1007/DCR.0b013e31819ad456.

Severity of inflammation as a predictor of colectomy in patients with chronic ulcerative colitis

Marco M Hefti  1 , David B Chessin, Noam H Harpaz, Randolph M Steinhagen, Thomas A Ullman
Affiliations

Severity of inflammation as a predictor of colectomy in patients with chronic ulcerative colitis

Marco M Hefti et al. Dis Colon Rectum. 2009 Feb.

Abstract

Purpose: We evaluated a large cohort of patients with longstanding ulcerative colitis in a colonoscopic surveillance program to determine predictors of colectomy.

Methods: We queried a retrospective database of patients who had symptoms of ulcerative colitis for seven years or more. Histologic inflammation in biopsies was graded on a validated four-point scale: absent, mild, moderate, severe. We performed a multivariate analysis of the inflammation scores and other variables to determine predictive factors for colectomy. Patients who underwent colectomy for neoplasia were censored at the time of surgery; those who did not undergo colectomy were censored at the time of last contact.

Results: A total of 561 patients were evaluated, with a median follow-up of 21.4 years since disease onset. A total of 97 patients (17.3 percent) underwent surgery; 25 (4.5 percent) for reasons other than dysplasia. These 25 constitute events for this analysis. For univariate analysis, mean inflammation (P < 0.001) and steroid use (P = 0.01) were predictors of colectomy. For multivariable proportional hazards analysis, mean inflammation (P < 0.001) and steroid use (P = 0.03) were predictors of colectomy, whereas salicylate use (P = 0.007) was protective.

Conclusions: Higher median inflammation scores and corticosteroid use were predictors of colectomy in this patient population. The overall rate of colectomy during a long period of follow-up was low (<1 percent per year).

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FIGURE 1
Study population.
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