Prognostic indicators in compensated cirrhosis

Abstract

In an attempt to identify variables predicting prognosis, 100 consecutive patients with compensated cirrhosis of the liver were followed for a mean of 4.9 (SD 0.7) yr. Fifty-one patients belonged to Child-Pugh class A, 49 to class B. At entry, five laboratory parameters were considered, together with sex, the grade of esophageal varices, and seven variables measured by ultrasonography (liver and spleen volume and the calibers of the splanchnic vessels). In a subgroup of 56 patients, the galactose elimination capacity also was determined. Forty-six patients were alive at the end of follow-up. Survival was analyzed according to Cox's model. Six parameters were able to predict survival (albumin, bilirubin, liver volume, prothrombin activity, cholesterol, varices). However, step-wise Cox regression analysis identified only four variables that independently correlated with survival: albumin, bilirubin, cholesterol, and liver volume. Galactose elimination failed to add any significance to routine liver function tests. This prospective study confirms the ability of routine liver function tests in predicting survival in compensated cirrhosis. The measurement of liver volume, easily obtained by ultrasonography, is also significant for prognosis, and may be introduced into clinical practice.