[Trends in the AIDS epidemic in groups at highest risk in Brazil, 1980-2004]

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to present the trends in the AIDS epidemic in the population groups at highest risk in Brazil. Discriminant analysis was used to reclassify cases with unknown risk into one of the three groups: IDU (injecting drug users), MSM (men who have sex with men), and heterosexuals. AIDS incidence rates by gender and exposure category were estimated for the period 1980-2004. In 1980-1988, 63.6% of AIDS cases were homosexual or bisexual males and 10% were females. Since 1988, there has been a decrease in the proportion of MSM and an increase in the other categories. Despite the incidence trends observed by exposure category, when the incidence rates were compared, the risk was much higher among MSM as compared to heterosexuals. Analysis of the AIDS epidemic dynamics in Brazil emphasizes the importance of MSM and male IDU as higher-risk groups.